Climate Justice, Environmental Migration Intentions, and Vulnerability among Flood-Affected Households in Pakistan’s Indus Basin: A Mixed-Methods Study of Adaptive Capacity and Policy Gaps
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65761/jssp.2026.112Keywords:
Climate justice environmental migration, flood-affected households Indus Basin, adaptive capacity policy gaps, climate displacement Pakistan, mixed-methods vulnerability studyAbstract
Background: Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of flooding, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations in developing countries. Pakistan’s Indus Basin experiences recurrent floods that disrupt livelihoods, displace communities, and heighten social and economic vulnerability, emphasizing the need to understand factors influencing environmental migration.
Objective: To examine the relationship between climate justice, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and environmental migration intentions among flood-affected households in Pakistan’s Indus Basin.
Methods: A mixed-methods cross-sectional study was conducted among 512 flood-affected households selected through stratified, purposive, and snowball sampling. Quantitative data were collected using structured household surveys, while qualitative data were obtained through semi-structured interviews with community leaders, NGO representatives, and affected households. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, t-tests, ANOVA, multiple regression, logistic regression, and thematic analysis.
Results: Participants reported high levels of flood exposure, livelihood disruption, and limited adaptive capacity. More than half intended to migrate within Pakistan, while many also considered international migration. Frequent flood exposure significantly increased migration intentions, whereas greater adaptive capacity, access to early-warning systems, and stronger perceptions of climate justice reduced the likelihood of migration. Respondents expressed dissatisfaction with existing climate adaptation policies and identified substantial gaps between community needs and available institutional support.
Conclusion: Flood-affected households in Pakistan’s Indus Basin face considerable climate vulnerability that contributes to migration intentions. Strengthening adaptive capacity, improving climate governance, expanding early-warning systems, and promoting climate justice are essential for reducing vulnerability and supporting sustainable adaptation in flood-prone communities.
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